Reverse migration within urban areas and its potential property market impact in Lagos

Humanity and its relationship with migration is believed to date approximately 2 million years ago, with the Homo Erectus expanding out of Africa in single or multiple waves (Lopez et al, 2016). These dispersals were believed to have been largely influenced by the need for survival or the search for greener pastures due to environmental changes that influenced food sources and suitable habitats. Lopez et al (2016) would also reveal cases of reverse migrations into Africa by the earliest man, which could have been influenced also by variability in climate conditions or the search for new habitats. This system of a progressive search for survival or settlement still follows in contemporary man today.

Human migration is often viewed with the motive of settling down temporarily or permanently in a place due to opportunities in the area or phenomenal or man-made changes to their previous location(s). This could be internal or external migration and in some extraordinary cases; reverse. Although the original concept of reverse migration is likened to the unusual act of migration by birds, its concept has been introduced in human living decisions. Hovardaoglu and Calisir-Hovardaoglu (2019) observed that reverse migration is the dispersal of persons from urban areas to rural areas. The authors discovered that aging is a major factor responsible for such a trend in Turkey. In a study of the challenges of reverse migration by internal and international migrant workers in the post-COVID Indian economy, the authors discovered that it could have social, economic and development impacts on the home region (Khan and Arokkiaraj, 2021). These reverse migrations can be caused by economic, social or political factors.

From a Nigerian perspective, this concept has been appreciated mostly in the sense of migrations from international countries to Nigeria and the challenges with their reintegration and the impact socio-economically (Adeniyi et al, 2021). This article has adapted the concept of reverse migration to throw some light on the current phenomenon. This intent to expose this phenomenon arises with speculations of migrations from the prime urban areas to sub-prime urban areas due to certain factors, chief of which is the state of the economy. With these speculations, the obvious questions are; what could influence such speculations? And what impact does it bear on the property market (or sub-markets)?

These speculations of reverse migration by individuals from the prime and exclusive urban addresses and its environs (i.e. Victoria Island – Ajah) to sub-prime addresses (Lagos Mainland) could be influenced by certain push or pull factors. Some of these factors and their influences would be discussed briefly as follows;

1. State of the economy: With a crippling economic performance since the COVID period, The Nigerian economy has impacted negatively, the purchasing power and disposable income of most Nigerians. This has been further worsened by the cost transfer alternative adopted by most business enterprises in a bid to stay afloat or break even. In such circumstances, it is logical to assume that this factor would impact home or location choices for individuals and could possibly signal a reconsideration of sub-prime urban areas for business or residence.
2. Degree of Infrastructural development: It goes without saying that infrastructure plays a very pivotal aspect in the appreciation of property locations and it is on this basis that prime locations edge out sub-prime ones. If for some reasons, sub-prime locations begin to enjoy levels of economic or social infrastructural development, there is a tendency for prime property dwellers to consider the option of a return to the sub-prime locations.
3. Population and degree of Stress on available infrastructure: the more densely populated a prime location is, the chances of more stress on the available infrastructure. This is more compounded when the land mass is small and there is a limited number of entry points to it. A good example is how dwellers from the Victoria Island axis, all the way to Ajah face more traffic issues due to the small land mass and large population going through and from it, compared to dwellers on the mainland which face lesser traffic congestion. 
4. Political Factors: In a bid to ensure strict adherence to building codes or accountability for built structures, the Lagos state government began a demolition exercise of distressed buildings and illegal structures or extensions in various parts of Lagos in 2023. These exercises could influence a shift in property sale, purchase or rent decisions in prime areas which possess more illegal structures to sub-prime areas with fewer cases of demolished illegal structures.

Further Reading

Migration and its impact on cities (2017). World Economic Forum. Accessible on https://www3.weforum.org

Author Background

Ugwuejim Stephen is a research enthusiast with research work centering around tenant-landlord considerations in property management, market performance assessment of property types, and a critique of social infrastructure investment in urban conurbations. He is also a registered real estate professional with the professional and regulatory bodies in Nigeria.